气候学

气候评价就是运用气候学的原理和方法，对某一时期的气象条件这一自然因素给国民经济建设和人民生活所带来的影响，进行科学的客观分析评定。气候评价的内容包括对气候条件本身的评价和气象条件对人们的社会活动与经济活动影响两部分。根据上述定义，下列不属于气候评价的是()。A:有关部门预计，百年一遇的西南大旱将会导致全国的米价、鲜花价格上涨
B:气象部门发布了高温红色预警信号，高温时期广大市民不适合出行
C:持续三天的山火已经毁坏了林地3000公顷，直接经济损失超过2亿元
D:专家称这次的连绵细雨是这个季节的正常现象，将对部分地区的春耕大有好处

Forecasting Methods There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster，the amount of information available to the forecaster，the level of difficul ty that the forecast situation presents，and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the persistence method ; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example，if it is sunny and 87 degrees today，the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today，the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However，if weather conditions change significantly from day to day， the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use. The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers，and areas of clouds and precipitation (降水量）.Using this information，the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1，000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day，using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down， speed up，change intensity, or change directions，the trends forecast will probably not work as well. The climatology (气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example，if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th，you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year， theclimatologymethod will oftenfail. The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario (模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.The persistence method fails to work well when A it is rainy.B it is sunny.C weather conditions stay stable.D weather conditions change greatly.

Forecasting Methods There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster，the amount of information available to the forecaster，the level of difficul ty that the forecast situation presents，and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the persistence method ; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example，if it is sunny and 87 degrees today，the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today，the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However，if weather conditions change significantly from day to day， the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use. The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers，and areas of clouds and precipitation (降水量）.Using this information，the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1，000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day，using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down， speed up，change intensity, or change directions，the trends forecast will probably not work as well. The climatology (气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example，if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th，you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year， theclimatologymethod will oftenfail. The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario (模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.Which of the following factors is NOT mentioned in choosing a forecasting method? A Necessary amount of information.Breativity of the forecaster.Cegree of difficulty involved in forecasting.D Practical knowledge of the forecaster.

Forecasting Methods There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster，the amount of information available to the forecaster，the level of difficul ty that the forecast situation presents，and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the persistence method ; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example，if it is sunny and 87 degrees today，the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today，the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However，if weather conditions change significantly from day to day， the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use. The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers，and areas of clouds and precipitation (降水量）.Using this information，the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1，000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day，using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down， speed up，change intensity, or change directions，the trends forecast will probably not work as well. The climatology (气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example，if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th，you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year， theclimatologymethod will oftenfail. The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario (模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.Historical weather data are necessary in A the persistence method and the trends method.B the trends method and the climatology method.C the climatology method and the analog method.D the persistence method and the analog method.

Forecasting Methods There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster，the amount of information available to the forecaster，the level of difficul ty that the forecast situation presents，and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the persistence method ; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example，if it is sunny and 87 degrees today，the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today，the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However，if weather conditions change significantly from day to day， the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use. The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers，and areas of clouds and precipitation (降水量）.Using this information，the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1，000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day，using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down， speed up，change intensity, or change directions，the trends forecast will probably not work as well. The climatology (气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example，if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th，you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year， theclimatologymethod will oftenfail. The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario (模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.The analog method should not be used in making a weather forecast when A the analog looks complicated.B the analog is more than 10 years old.C the current weather scenario is different 什om the analog:D the current weather scenario is exactly the same as the analog.

共用题干第一篇
Forecasting Methods
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses
depends upon the experience of the forecaster,the amount of information available to the forecaster,the level of
difficulty that the forecast situation presents,and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method,the simplest way of producing a forecast.The per-
sistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change.For example,if it is
sunny and 87 degrees today,the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow.
If two inches of rain fell today,the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.
However,if weather conditions change significantly from day to day,the persistence method usually breaks
down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts,high and low
pressure centers , and areas of clouds and precipitation（降水量）.Using this information , the forecaster can
predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time.For example,if a storm system is
1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day,using the trends method you
would predict it arrive in your area in 4 days.The trends method works well when systems continue to move
at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time.If they slow down,speed up,change intensi-
ty,or change directions,the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology（气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves
averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast.For example,if you were using
the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th,you would go through all the
weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average.The climatology method oniy
works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is
quite unusual for the given time of year,the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast.It involves examining
today's forecast scenario（模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very
similar(an analog).The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as ii
did in the past.The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict ana-
log.Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time.
Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results. The persistence method fails to work well when_________.A:it is rainyB:it is sunnyC:weather conditions change greatlyD:weather conditions stay stable

共用题干第一篇
Forecasting Methods
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses
depends upon the experience of the forecaster,the amount of information available to the forecaster,the level of
difficulty that the forecast situation presents,and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method,the simplest way of producing a forecast.The per-
sistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change.For example,if it is
sunny and 87 degrees today,the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow.
If two inches of rain fell today,the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.
However,if weather conditions change significantly from day to day,the persistence method usually breaks
down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts,high and low
pressure centers , and areas of clouds and precipitation（降水量）.Using this information , the forecaster can
predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time.For example,if a storm system is
1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day,using the trends method you
would predict it arrive in your area in 4 days.The trends method works well when systems continue to move
at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time.If they slow down,speed up,change intensi-
ty,or change directions,the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology（气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves
averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast.For example,if you were using
the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th,you would go through all the
weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average.The climatology method oniy
works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is
quite unusual for the given time of year,the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast.It involves examining
today's forecast scenario（模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very
similar(an analog).The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as ii
did in the past.The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict ana-
log.Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time.
Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results. Which of the following factors is NOT mentioned in choosing a forecasting method?A:Necessary amount of information.B:Degree of difficulty involved in forecasting.C:Practical knowledge of the forecaster.D: Creativity of the forecaster.

共用题干
第一篇
Forecasting Methods
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses
depends upon the experience of the forecaster,the amount of information available to the forecaster,the level of
difficulty that the forecast situation presents,and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method,the simplest way of producing a forecast.The per-
sistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change.For example,if it is
sunny and 87 degrees today,the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow.
If two inches of rain fell today,the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.
However,if weather conditions change significantly from day to day,the persistence method usually breaks
down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts,high and low
pressure centers , and areas of clouds and precipitation（降水量）.Using this information , the forecaster can
predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time.For example,if a storm system is
1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day,using the trends method you
would predict it arrive in your area in 4 days.The trends method works well when systems continue to move
at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time.If they slow down,speed up,change intensi-
ty,or change directions,the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology（气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves
averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast.For example,if you were using
the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th,you would go through all the
weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average.The climatology method oniy
works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is
quite unusual for the given time of year,the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast.It involves examining
today's forecast scenario（模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very
similar(an analog).The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as ii
did in the past.The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict ana-
log.Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time.
Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
The persistence method fails to work well when_________.
A:it is rainy
B:it is sunny
C:weather conditions change greatly
D:weather conditions stay stable

共用题干第一篇
Forecasting Methods
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses
depends upon the experience of the forecaster,the amount of information available to the forecaster,the level of
difficulty that the forecast situation presents,and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method,the simplest way of producing a forecast.The per-
sistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change.For example,if it is
sunny and 87 degrees today,the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow.
If two inches of rain fell today,the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.
However,if weather conditions change significantly from day to day,the persistence method usually breaks
down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts,high and low
pressure centers , and areas of clouds and precipitation（降水量）.Using this information , the forecaster can
predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time.For example,if a storm system is
1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day,using the trends method you
would predict it arrive in your area in 4 days.The trends method works well when systems continue to move
at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time.If they slow down,speed up,change intensi-
ty,or change directions,the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology（气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves
averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast.For example,if you were using
the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th,you would go through all the
weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average.The climatology method oniy
works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is
quite unusual for the given time of year,the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast.It involves examining
today's forecast scenario（模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very
similar(an analog).The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as ii
did in the past.The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict ana-
log.Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time.
Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results. The analog method should not be used in making a weather forecast when________.A: the current weather scenario is different from the analogB:the analog looks complicatedC:the analog is more than 10 years oldD:the current weather scenario is exactly the same as the analog

共用题干第一篇
Forecasting Methods
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses
depends upon the experience of the forecaster,the amount of information available to the forecaster,the level of
difficulty that the forecast situation presents,and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method,the simplest way of producing a forecast.The per-
sistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change.For example,if it is
sunny and 87 degrees today,the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow.
If two inches of rain fell today,the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.
However,if weather conditions change significantly from day to day,the persistence method usually breaks
down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts,high and low
pressure centers , and areas of clouds and precipitation（降水量）.Using this information , the forecaster can
predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time.For example,if a storm system is
1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day,using the trends method you
would predict it arrive in your area in 4 days.The trends method works well when systems continue to move
at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time.If they slow down,speed up,change intensi-
ty,or change directions,the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology（气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves
averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast.For example,if you were using
the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th,you would go through all the
weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average.The climatology method oniy
works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is
quite unusual for the given time of year,the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast.It involves examining
today's forecast scenario（模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very
similar(an analog).The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as ii
did in the past.The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict ana-
log.Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time.
Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results. Historical weather data are necessary in_________.A:the climatology method and the analog methodB:the persistence method and the trends methodC:the trends method and the climatology methodD:the persistence method and the analog method

共用题干Citizen Scientists
Understanding how nature responds to climate change will require monitoring key life cycle events-flowering,the appearance of leaves,the first frog calls of the spring-all around the world.But ecologists can't be______(51)so they are turning to non-scientists,sometimes called citizen scientists,for help.
Climate scientists are not present everywhere.______(52)there are so many places in the world and not enough scientists to observe all of them,they are asking for your help in_______(53)signs of climate change across the world.The citizen scientist movement encourages______(54)people to observe a very specific research interest-birds,trees,flowers budding,etc-and send their observations______(55)a giant database to be observed by professional scientists.This helps a small number of scientists track a______(56)amount of data that they would never be able to gather on their own.______(57)like citizen journalists helping large publications cover a hyper-local beat,citizen scientists are ready for the conditions where they live.______(58)that's needed to become one is a few minutes each day or each week to gather data and_______(59)it in.
A group of scientists and educators launched an organization last year______(60) the National
Phenology（生物气候学）Network."Phenology" is what scientists call the study of the timing of events in nature.
One of the group's first efforts relies on scientists and non-scientists______(61)to collect data about plant flowering and leafing every year.The program,called Project BudBurst,collects life cycle______(62)on a variety of common plants from across the United States.People participating in the project-which is______(63)to everyone-record their observations on the Project BudBurst website.
"People don't______(64)to be plant experts-they just have to look around and see what's in their neighborhood,"says Jennifer Scheartz,an education consultant with the project."As we collect this data,we'11 be able to make an'estimate of______(65)plants and communities of plants and animals will respond as the climate changes." _________65A:who B:how C:before D:since